CSIAM Trans. Life Sci., 1 (2025), pp. 438-465.
Published online: 2025-10
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In this paper, we propose an age-structured epidemic model with strain mutation and age-based vaccination. We define the reproduction numbers of both the original and mutant strains ($R_{0}^{1}$ and $R_{0}^{2}$). If the reproduction number $R_{0} < 1$, the disease-free steady state is locally asymptotically stable. If the reproduction number $R_{0}^{2} > 1$, there exists a dominant steady state of the mutant strain. Conditions for local stability of this dominant steady state are also obtained. If both reproduction numbers $R_{0}^{1}$ and $R_{0}^{2}$ are greater than 1, a coexistence steady state may occur. Finally, the uniform persistence of the disease described by our age-structured model is strictly proved when the reproduction number $R_{0}^{1} > 1.$ By using the data of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan and the theoretical results obtained in this paper, some numerical calculations are carried out to demonstrate the effect of the age-based vaccination strategy.
}, issn = {3006-2721}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.4208/csiam-ls.SO-2024-0010}, url = {http://global-sci.org/intro/article_detail/csiam-ls/24510.html} }In this paper, we propose an age-structured epidemic model with strain mutation and age-based vaccination. We define the reproduction numbers of both the original and mutant strains ($R_{0}^{1}$ and $R_{0}^{2}$). If the reproduction number $R_{0} < 1$, the disease-free steady state is locally asymptotically stable. If the reproduction number $R_{0}^{2} > 1$, there exists a dominant steady state of the mutant strain. Conditions for local stability of this dominant steady state are also obtained. If both reproduction numbers $R_{0}^{1}$ and $R_{0}^{2}$ are greater than 1, a coexistence steady state may occur. Finally, the uniform persistence of the disease described by our age-structured model is strictly proved when the reproduction number $R_{0}^{1} > 1.$ By using the data of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan and the theoretical results obtained in this paper, some numerical calculations are carried out to demonstrate the effect of the age-based vaccination strategy.